Predictive techniques’ can be represented like this:
The large bold red circle represents our predictive model. The objective of this predictive model (in technical terms: the ‘target’) is to find all the people that have bought your product (i.e. the targets are the Chokotoff label: ).
This predictive model is making 4 errors:
- Two blue candy and one yellow candy are classified as “customers currently having the product”. These errors are interesting: they represent very good “leads” (i.e. customer that do NOT have your product yet but are very likely to purchase it)
- one customer is classified as somebody that did not bough your product but, in reality, he bought it.
Predictive models that are built with TIMi also give you in addition the exact probability of purchase of each customer. In the above example, the prospects that are inside the thin red curve have the highest probability of purchase.
The quality of the ranking obtained through predictive technique is visible on the lift curve: